The
global turmoil in energy prices is not the only problem brought about by shale
oil and gas revolution in the U.S. While this revolution bolstered U.S. energy
independence, the latest developments in the U.S. oil demand, refining, and
storage have been far less predictable, and even seem downright illogical.
Currently, the U.S. oil imports are growing, oil storage is record high and
still on the rise, and American refineries are losing money from processing
domestic light crude oil (with low viscosity and density) compared to imported
heavy oil. This situation arose from domestic oil boom being at the right place
at the wrong time.
Following
the peak of domestic oil output and increasing imports over the past few
decades until the shale oil industry shot up oil production in late 2000,
American refineries had installed expensive coking units to process leftover
heavy oil into higher value products such as naphtha, light oils, petroleum
coke, and intermediate oils. In other words, margins for American refineries increased
with processing imported heavy crude oil. Enter light oil crudes from domestic shale
formations into the market. Running light crudes is not so profitable for U.S.
refineries given that the latter are configured with expensive coking units
designed to process mostly heavy crude oil. Given the uncertainty of long-term stability
of light crude oil production in the U.S., refineries with coking units may
stand idle or process light crudes at a loss.
Furthermore,
because American refineries profit more from gasoline production than distillates
(because U.S. motorists mostly consume gasoline than diesel) with the rising
demand for gasoline, there are too much distillate products and not enough
gasoline for domestic consumption. Given that domestic and global demand for
diesel is not so strong at this point, the U.S. refineries have been storing
the unwanted stocks of distillates. Meanwhile, gasoline demand is also growing
in China and India and refineries in both countries are trying to get rid of surplus
distillates by exporting them.
While
American refiners are still enjoying strong margins, continued production of
domestic light crude oil will mean more storage of unwanted distillates. The U.S. currently has more than 1.2
billion barrels in storage, most of which is light oil. Under the
current market conditions, the cost of storage will remain important. If interest
rates go up, which will increase the cost of building oil storage units, it will
become more expensive to store oil. Therefore, the only way to absorb the storage
glut will be to curtail the production of domestic crude oil. In turn, for
American refineries to reap economic benefits from refining, overproduction of
light crude oil needs to decrease and heavy oil runs should increase. Given the
growing demand for gasoline and refineries built to process heavy oil, U.S.
oil imports are already rising. Although the repeal of the four-decade-old
export ban last year has not led to the decrease in oil storage or a
significant jump in exports due to the global oil glut, the only way that the
U.S. shale oil boom will be sustained is if it increases exports and global
demand for crude oil and middle distillates will pick up pace. However, the
status quo might last through 2016.